Newsletter issue – July 2024

Once the votes are all counted and we know who the winners and losers are in this year’s General Election on 4 July, minds will start turning to the implementation of the policies promised by the incoming party.

Whether the next Government is Labour, Conservative, a Coalition or an even more unexpected winner, such as the Lib Dems or Reform UK emerges, there will be a raft of pledges to be put into effect. That means another Budget.

Sometimes following a General Election, we have seen an ‘Emergency Budget’. In 2010 when the Conservatives and Lib Dems formed a Coalition Government, the first Budget came in June – just a month after the election was held. But in 2020, the first Budget came around three months after the Tories had secured victory with a significant majority.

When should we expect the next major fiscal event this time around?

There’s a good chance there will be a gap of a few months following the 4 July before the Budget is held. That is a likelihood because of the ramifications of the infamous ‘Mini Budget’ from Liz Truss in 2022 that sent shockwaves through the economy and ultimately led to her severely shortened time as Prime Minister. On that occasion, the Chancellor did not wait for the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) assessment of the economic impact of policy announcements – and that was later highlighted as a reason for the fall out. So, assuming the next Government holds off for the OBR, that will mean around a 10-week wait, giving it the necessary time to produce its report. So, we could be look at around 10 – 17 September.

We may have an answer by the time of our next newsletter, and so we’ll await further developments.